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The Normalcy Bias & Social Proof in Disasters

Updated: Aug 4

The normalcy bias and social proof are psychologically driven behaviors people may go through in order to cope with highly chaotic situations such as disasters. We go to great lengths in our courses to discuss their effects because these two mechanisms are among the greatest enemies of survival. They go against outside the box thinking and creative solutions and ultimately lead to complacency. The normalcy bias occurs when despite changing circumstances people hold on to the belief that everything will remain the same. This is why many people will fail to adequately prepare for disasters. A glaring example of this is when people opt to stay in places after having been ordered to evacuate. A, sadly ,common event during hurricanes and wildfires.



Social proof is a term coined by Robert Cialdini in his 1984 book “Influence”. It describes the need for people to imitate behaviors that seem useful in ambiguous situations. This behavior has also been referred as the herd behavior and mob mentality. Very clear examples are events such as fire alarms when it takes someone to break the ice before anyone is willing to take action. A resourceful leader can reverse engineer this paradigm by providing the social proof to embolden others into also taking action. An example of this is the 9/11 flight 93 where passengers and crew members rallied together to fight back against the Al Qaeda terrorists attempting to hijack the flight.



Now that we have some idea of what these are, let me show you some examples I noticed during this last hurricane scare, Hurricane Dorian 2019, starting with the panic buying. Despite having nearly a week to prepare the panic shopping didn’t start in earnest until the news started showing old footage of empty shelves. Once that happened the big box super markets were the only ones quickly depleted of supplies. The smaller ones and those that are privately owned were left nearly untouched, and while I generally believe that in a large scale disaster we are probably 9 meals away from anarchy, in this case once the hurricane predictions showed a delay in the storms arrival date everything was restocked. The reality of the situation is that had those people been adequately prepared from the get go none of that craziness need have happened.


It was the normalcy bias that created the “nothing will happen” mindset until the social proof of empty shelves scared them into frenzied inefficient action. The lesson learned was to use smaller and privately owned super markets or dollar stores for last minute food shopping or better yet prepare early. Another place literally untouched were outdoors type shops where not only can you buy camping foods, but flashlights, gas stoves, and other survival and preparedness items. For bottled water and ice consider liquor stores which are also overlooked since people tend to just get their booze there.



The reality is that those that prepare early typically fare better. They become more useful since they are no longer part of the problem in that regard.






Something else that’s very important to know if you are depending on a delivery service such as Amazon Prime or Publix grocery delivery is that as you get closer to the storm they will eventually stop delivering. In the case of Publix once in store business gets so busy they can no longer spare an employee to do the delivery. Still it’s worth noting that they can deliver a lot more than just food and water, but also batteries, toiletries, medicine, and even first aid supplies. An important consideration for the elderly and disabled!



The long gas lines where another social proof created urgency. The first to get depleted were those gas stations on corners in busy intersections. This is not the first time I’ve seen long lines attract more people. When I managed the hugely popular Miami nightclub The Red Room in the mid 1990’s this was a strategy we often used. By delaying people from entering in one shot we created more interest in those driving by. Long lines actually attracted larger crowds. Apparently in gas stations as much as night clubs since for a long time after the bigger gas stations had gone dry there was still gas was still available in many of the smaller gas stations in back streets and industrial areas. Take note of those in your area. Another interesting thing to note is the time when they open. Since the lines usually start occurring after about 8 in the morning or so. In my area those gas stations that aren’t open 24 hours usually open at around 5 in the morning. So it seems in this case like most the early bird will most likely get the worm.



Security is another victim of the normalcy bias. So much so, that denial is a big problem in maintaining situational awareness. Make it a commitment to be the leader that brings the social proof necessary to survive a dangerous situation. It the words of my colleague James Yeager “if you are thinking someone ought to do something, you’ve just been elected”. Something I noticed several hurricanes ago while living in a resort style condo community that boasted impeccable security, was that when hurricanes approached, the security guards all were all sent home and the security gates were left open.


It is as it should be when you consider those security guards all have families and homes to protect during these difficult times. Even law enforcement who are duty bound to respond in most instances will not be responding once the wind speeds get past a certain point, for their own safety. So if you are getting the impression that safety in reality is really your own problem- you are right! Even during normal times when the weather is nice, if you are a victim of a crime, the national average of police response times is 3 minutes. In my home town Miami, Florida it’s 5 minutes. A lot of bad things can happen in 3-5 minutes. I think it’s pretty clear that the old cliché “when seconds count help is only minutes away” is true. Plan accordingly.



Hopefully this treatment helped to clarify how both the normalcy bias and the need for social proof stifles our preparedness efforts, and why if we are to be truly self-reliant we need to think outside the box. I also hope these examples help increase your understanding of how observation and creativity are critical survival skills worthy of cultivation. Finally let me point out that mindset is everything, and just like the only fight you are guaranteed to win is the one you avoid, know that a commitment to awareness, avoidance, and de-escalation applies to many realms not just self-defense.




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